Yunƙurin diflomasiyya na Modi: Shin India za ta iya sulhunta Rasha, Ukraine da ƙasashen Yamma?

Firaministan India bai taɓa sukar yaƙin da Rasha ke yi a Ukraine ba. A yanzu da Yammacin duniya ke matsa masa lamba, dukkan idanu sun karkata ga ziyarar da Modi zai kai Kiev a makon nan don ganin ko zai iya sulhunta Rasha, Ukaine da ƙasashen Yamma. Daga Hannan Hussain Tun bayan fara yaƙin Rasha da Ukraine, India ta yi ta ƙoƙarin kyautata alaƙar tattalin arziki da ayyukan soji da Moscow ba tare da shiga hatsarin nuna adawa ga Kiev da Yammacin Duniya ba. Firaministan India Narendra Modi ya yi tafiya ta farko zuwa Rasha tun bayan fara yaƙi a watan Yulin bara, kuma a makon nan zai ziyarci Ukraine - tafiya irinta ta farko da wani Firaministan India zai kai a shekaru aru-aru. Amma, India za ta iya cim ma burinta na tauna taura biyu? Kuma waɗanne ƙalubale take fuskanta? Ganin cewa Modi zai kai ziyara a Ukraine ne a mawuyacin yanayi, da tsoron taɓarɓarewar alaƙa da ƙasashen Yamma, akwai babban aiki a gabansa na yin sara yana duban bakin gatari. 'Yan dabaru A yayin da India ke zurfafa ayyukanta da haɗin kan tattalin arziki da Moscow, a bayyane take ƙarara cewa suka daga Ukraine da ƙasashen Yamma ba za ta samu wajen zama a wurinta ba. Baya ga dukkan wannan, ziyarar Modi zuwa Ukraine wani yunƙuri ne na yin 'yan dabaru na toshe ƙofar rashin kyautawar da ɓangarorin biyu ke yi wa India saboda mu'amalantar Moscow musamman ziyarar da ya kai wa Putin a watan Yuli, wadda Shugaba Vladimir Zelensky ya soka da cewa "babban abin ɓacin rai ne ga ƙoƙarin samar da zaman lafiya." Ba Ukraine ce kaɗai ke matsa lamba ga India ba, Washington ma na son New Delhi ta yi amfani da kyakkyawar alaƙarta da Rasha ta kawo ƙarshen yaƙin. Wannan zai zama babban aiki ga India, wadda har yanzu ba ta soki yaƙin da Rasha ke yi a Ukraine ba. Idan ta zama mai son samar da zaman lafiya, dole ne ta ja hankalin shugaban Rasha Vladimir Putin da ya yi magana da Zelensky duk da kutsen da Ukraine ke yi a yankin Kursk na Rasha. India ta ƙi ɗaukar matsaya kan manyan buƙatun Rasha da na Ukraine da na kasashen Yamma, waɗanda za ta yi amfani da su wajen ganin an kawo zaman lafiya da dakatar da yaƙin. Ku kalli Babban taron Ukraine a watan Yuni. India ta ƙi amincewa da buƙatun ƙasashen Yamma na "kare martabar iyakokin Ukraine" don kawo ƙarshen yaƙin. Duk da haka, Modi na ƙoƙarin nuna India na tsaka-tsaki game da Kiev, aikin da ba iyakacin zaman lafiya da diflomasiyya yake buƙata ba don rarrashin ƙasashen Yamma. Mahukunta a New Delhi ba su ɓoye ƙin yarda da zama mai shiga tsakani a lokacin tafiyar. Zaɓi na daban Ku kalli biyan buƙatun ɓangarori biyu. India na iya haɗa kai da Ukraine a ɓangarori daban-daban kamar ayyukan noma, samar da kayan more rayuwa, kiwon lafiya, ilimi, tsaro da tattalin arziki, amma ba a da tabbas kan gudunmawar da za ta bayar wajen yin sulhu. Wannan na da muhimmanci saboda Modi ya yi alƙawarin ƙara nuna goyon baya ga zaman lafiyar Ukraine, kuma ya shirya yin tattaunawa mai zurfi kan yaƙin. Amma batu na gaskiya shi ne buƙatar tsaro ta Ukraine a yanzu haka ba ta da wani muhimmanci ga India, kuma ba za ta taɓa yarda ta juya baya ga babbar ƙawarta Rasha ba. Shugaban Amurka tare da suaran jami'an gwamnatinsa yayin gana wa ta yanar gizo da Firaministan India Narendra Modi a ranar 11 ga Afrilu, 2022. Salon yaƙin a yanzu na tattare da rashin goyon bayan India. Akwai zargi mai ƙarfi cewa ƙasashen Yamma ne suka samar da hanyar da Ukraine ta afka wa yankin Kurks, hakan na barazana ga ɓarkewar yaƙi a dukkan duniya, idan har Amurka ta goyi bayan hare-haren da Ukraine ke ci gaba da kaiwa. A yayin da rashin yarda da juna tsakanin Washington da Moscow ke ci gaba, India na fuskantar aiki mai wahala na shiga tsakiyar manyan ƙawayenta biyu. Wani abu mai jan hankali shi ne, buƙatar soji da tattalin arziki idan za a ce India ta yi zaɓi. Tun farkon 2022 India da Rasha sun zurfafa haɗin gwiwa a ɓangarori daban-daban. A yau, India na sayen sama da kashi 40 na albarkatun mai daga Rasha, da kashi 60 na makamanta. Wani ɓangare na nasarar tattalin arzikin India na samuwa ne saboda ƙawancen diflomasiyya: tana tabbatar da ba ta yi duk wani abu ba da zai ɓata wa Rasha rai, a yayin da take nuna wa Yammacin Duniya cewa mai da makaman Rasha na da muhimmnaci kuma abubuwan buƙata ne ga New Delhi. A ɓangaren gwamnatin Biden ma, an gaza yin haƙuri. Tuni gwamnatin ta gargaɗi India kan kar ta yi wasa da ƙawancen da take yi da Amurka. Ba za ta iya biris da Yammacin duniya ba India na da kyawawan dalilai na jan ra'ayin Washington cewa da gaske take tana son daidaita alaƙar Ukrane da Rasha. Da fari dai, dole ne da nuna alamar ɗaukar mataki mai tsauri game rikicin bil'adama da ka iya biyo bayan rikicin. Shirun da India ta yi game da ƙaruwar kashe rayuka a Ukraine a watan Yuli ya janyo damuwa sosai a gwamnatin Biden, tana cewar babbar ƙawarta na yin zagon ƙasa ga taimakon da Yammacin Duniya ke baiwa Kiev. Dole ne Modi ya kawar da wannan fahimtar a makon nan a yayin ziyarar, kuma alƙawarin da ya yi na "bayyana matsaya kan samar da zaman lafiya a yaƙin Ukraine da ake ci gaba da yi" na iya zama matakin hakan na farko. India na samun goyon bayan kasashen Yamma waje hadin kai da kawance irin na Kawancen Tsaro na Kasash Hudu na QUAD, da Tsaron Yakin Pacific da Amurka ke jagoranta. Wadannan kawance na da muhimmanci ga koakrin India na samun makamashi da habaka tattalin arziki a yankin Asia-Pacific, kuma New Delhi na kokarin saka kanta a matsayin mai samar da tsaro ga kawayen Yamma a yankinsu. Amma wadannan burace-burace na kara kawo tsaiko kan yunkurin India na zama a tsakiya. A baya Rasha ta bayyana rashin jin dadinta ga QUAD, tana mai cewar Amurka da kawayenta na kalubalantar manufofin Rasha da China a kasashe. Wannan na kawo yanayi mai rikitarwa ga India, wadda ke da manufofin kasashen waje a fannoni daban-daban, kuma ta ki yarda a yi mata kallon wani bangare na mai kalubalantar Yammacin duniya ko Rasha. Saboda haka, babbar manufar Modi a ziyarar wannan makon ita ce kaurace wa zabin wani bangare a tsakanin Ukraine da Rasha tare da zama tare da Yammacin duniya. Amma kuma karuwar rikici tsakanin Rasha da kasashen Yamma na kara rikita yunkurin samun daidaito da India ke yi, wand ake sanya batun zama babba a wajen Modi game da rikicin Ukraine. Marubucin wannan makala Hannan Hussain kwararre ne a fannin harkokin kasa da kasa kuma marubuci. Malami ne na Fulbright kan Tsaron Kasa da Kasa a jami'ar Maryland, kuma yi aikin bayar da shawara a cibiyar New Lines da ke Washington. An buga ayyukan Hussain a mujallun Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, da the Express Tribune. Togaciya: Ba dole ba ne ra'ayoyin marubucin su kasance daidai da ra'ayoyi da manufofin edita na TRT Afrika.